Thursday, August 23, 2007

India is Nokia's 2nd largest market

Nokia has done this better than anyone else in recent memory- innovate for the emerging markets. they have done this better and more aggresively than anyone else and now are reaping the benefits of truly serving the bottom of the pyramid. Now which software company can emulate this ??

Sunday, February 19, 2006

Web 2.0 business models

Web 2.0 innovation MAP

The Web 2.0 Mashup Matrix is another innovative way of figuring out what kinds of mashups exist and OBTW, there are conferences coming up that will give you a leg up on this stuff- MIX 06 and Mashup camp

some interesting companies ( read the ones wiht real muscle and funding ) I found in this paradigm

Writely.com
http://www.30boxes.com
http://www.techcrunch.com/index.php
www.trumba.com
www.campfire.com

Thursday, February 02, 2006

WEF Panel Discussion with Gates, Chambers Schidt et al..

Geoffrey moore ( of crossing the chasm fame ) moderated a Davos session on the future of technology where the panelists were Bill Gates, John Chambers, Eric Schmidt, and Niklas Zennstrom.
Get the Podcast from here
http://gaia.unit.net/wef/worldeconomicforum_annualmeeting2006/default.aspx?sn=15498

Monday, January 23, 2006

World Economic Forum - Davos

The importance of the World Economic Forum cannot be overstated. Over the years it has become one of the major podiums for CEOs whether it is simply to take a gloabl stage or if it is to lobby international governments for special interests or if it is jsut to stroke egos the size of alps themsleves

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-01-20-davos-cover-usat_x.htm?csp=1

...but the Indians are taking it to a whole new level !!
http://businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2006/nf20060123_5900_db016.htm
Waiting for visitors at their hotel rooms will be gifts from India -- a
pashmina shawl, an Apple (AAPL ) iPod loaded with Indian pop and classical music, a piece of traditional art, some ayurvedic oils -- along with a CD packed with all sorts of economic information about the country.

For the first time ever, the country is embarking on a positive PR saga - a welcome departure from the self empathising past - onto a new brashful future - way to go !!!!!

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

emerging markets prophet

http://businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_04/b3968089.htm

The article talks about C.K Prahalad - the thinker behind the push to the "bottom of the pyramid". this topic has been well publicised so I wont go into the details but here are a couple of concepts that the article touches upon that I would like to elaborate on:

#1 Innovation can come from any part of hte value chain in emerging markets
#2 Microtransactions are here to stay esp in emerging markets

First for #1, The article quotes Bharti Telecom which has innovated by outsourcing most of the operational elements of hte telco value chain. Over the last few years, the tier 0/1 telcos have taken a beating due to overcapacity , consolidation/scams, overpromise of 3G etc. In the developed world, the innovation is still focussed squarely on the customer interaction side with triple convergene, IPTV etc but Bharti had a different challenge. It couldnt really scale its operations to reach millions and drive grass roots.

For #2, the example in the microcredit lending industry is a great one. Think of others like retail music, SMS etc that are all multi billion $$ industries in their own right in many an emerging market. Extrapolating this phenomenon to other software markets like manufacturing. People often associated with hosted software - it doesnt necessarily have to be the case. "On premise" software can be licensed in a pay as you go model.

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Online advertising business model

I am not a financial analyst, I don’t play one on TV and neither did I stay in Holiday inn express last night but I would like to ponder on the valuation of a certain business model. There is so much clamoring for a piece of the advertising pie that I decided to check out what this hoopla I all about. I am not claiming that all these #s are totally accurate. They are back of the envelope calculations at best and take it for what its worth ( close to nothing ).

WW total spend on Advertising ( online + print+ media+ hoardings + etc ) = $500 Billion
Online advertising today = ( less than ) $20 Bil
This segment is projected to grow immensely
Say in 5 years Online advertising = ( less than ) $100 Bil ( 20% of overall advertising ) – BEST case

Google market share today is about 30 % - lets say it grown in the best case to about 40% which will put their share to 40 Billion

Margins in content publishing business will reach an equilibrium of 20% - even at a high end say it is at 30% -> GOOG’s margin is 12 Bil
For arguments sake, I am going to assume that google doesn’t really get much traction on other revenue streams other than advertising ( search, placement, display etc )

Let’s take an earnings multiple of 15-20X considering the risk, potential upside outside of this core business etc -> 180- 240Bil market cap – today GOOG’s market cap was 138 – some room for growth huh?


Supporting evidence


I know that you are itching to ask me why I took an revenue multiple and not an earnings multiple- the answer is that I think the earnings ( driven largely by the margins ) are going to wildly fluctuate in the next few years before it reaches an equilibrium. Of 20%. It might even increase in the short run before it starts coming down.

Developed markets have about 95% share of the WW spend on advertising. This is not bound to change much in the next few years but even if you think about 5% of a 100 billion market it is not bad - huh ? In the Indian market, there are an estimated 38 Million users of the internet who go to Indian websites like yahoo.co.in or msn.co.in and other local websites. Though the user base looks ripe to explode, the advertising spend still lags and will be on ramp for another few years. the opportunity is there - who will capitalzine on it ?

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

The science of the "Long Tail"


Ever heard of the "Long Tail of the market" ? This phenom is ringing bells recenlty in discussions around the residual value of content aggregation businesses and how content providers like goog derive value etc. I found this useful in thinking about the business model of how economics in emerging market software would look. It is a simple Zipfian distribution if you think about it. the essence of this model is that Rank * Frequency = Constant which essentially means that the perpetuity of the business model tends towards infinity and if you plot it along a logarithimically, it will turn out to be a straight line. so why is this important in the emerging markets setting? it is relevant if you think about how the emerging market opportunties are essentially a compositio of several long tails. Hence one has to keep distribution, sales and maintenance costs to an absolute minimum to derive the maximum benefits of scale.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Chapter 7: Rural Computing


Chapter 7: Rural Computing

This chapter is dedicated to the topic of how Information technology can revolutionize the lives of the poor people ( mostly living in rural areas ) in emerging markets. In a slight departure from the norm of this book, we will not look at this chapter not from a commercial aspect of how software companies can design products that will appeal to this market but rather take a more holistic view of this problem that is very close to my heart. Although they are a few success stories of late, designing any kind of product for this market is still a very nascent concept and one which is fraught with inherent dangers. It is as much a socio-economic challenge as much as a commercial business challenge. Lets begin by looking at the basic challenges in brining the power of information technology to the rural setting and then at how we can overcome those to achieve the end goal.

There are three stages of evolution to make the vision of Rural computing a reality. Let’s look at these various stages and see the progression from one to another.


First of there is the infrastructure challenge as in any setting in emerging markets. Rather than focusing on the usual infrastructural limitations like network, power etc, I would like to spend some time talking about a few others like accessibility to computers, lack of credit lines for the poor and the role of governance in establishing the right environment etc.

Driving awareness around computing is a key aspect of driving participation from the rural populace.


1. Profit maximizing institutional and individual shareholders
2. Creation by spin-off from existing regulated institution
3. Centralized organization with branch offices located in cities
Mainly non-profit institutional shareholders
Creation by conversion from NGO or formation of new entity
Decentralized set of small units in areas with weak infrastructure


To illustrate the concept of Microcredit, lets look at a couple of examples of financial services organizations that have successfully operated a micro credit policy to the poor.
After just two years in the field, ICICI, India's second-largest private bank, now has close to 1.5m customers that qualify as deeply poor, and an associated loan portfolio of $265m. It has achieved this by working through 53 small microfinance banks, which are superb at marketing loans but are constrained by having them sitting on their balance sheet. ICICI lends to the microfinance institutions at 9.5-11%, a bit more than it charges its corporate clients, and the microfinance institutions re-lend the money at 16-30%. The microfinance providers are responsible for the first 5-12% in loan losses to ensure that they proceed with caution. Returns were good for the first two years and ICICI is expanding the scheme.
According to some estimates, demand for loans from poor but creditworthy people in India could amount to $40 billion, 40 times the current supply. Very little of this demand could be met from charitable sources, but billions of dollars could be made available on commercial terms. Lots more could be raised by allowing small institutions to take deposits.

Many of the world's biggest banks have recently launched interesting pilot projects. ABN Amro owns a microfinance bank in Brazil, Real Microcrédito, jointly with ACCION, and provides credit to five microfinance institutions in India. Deutsche Bank recently raised a $75m investment fund and syndicated a large loan on behalf of ProCredit in Germany.
The most obvious way for large banks to get into microfinance is through handling remittances, a business that according to the World Bank is worth $225 billion a year and growing strongly. Until now it has been dominated by transfer agents such as Western Union and by informal arrangements, often with high charges or high risks. But money transmission is becoming more competitive, and global banks are well placed because they already have systems that can send large amounts of money around the world cheaply.
The most ambitious big bank in this area is Citigroup. It does not deal with individual microfinance customers, but has already established relationships with microfinance institutions in 20 countries and thinks the number could soon grow to 30. Working through its Banamex subsidiary in Mexico, it is providing life-insurance policies sold by microfinance firms and is preparing for various bond offerings, private placements and even the securitization of a large microfinance institution's loan portfolio that will be resold to investors. For its wealthy clients, it has created guarantee funds that allow them to put up collateral in America for credit extended in poor countries. The list goes on.
Citi's biggest contribution, though, is its belief that microfinance can become a valid, profit-making business. If it is right, the other big banks will also pile into the market—and so will investors.

Overlaying this with a technology offering can have interesting implications. For example, we can use this channel of distribution to allow young villagers to open internet kiosks for “community computing” described in another section of this chapter.

Community computing

What is Community computing ?
Due to the various economic constraints faced by the rural populace, I advocate creating a new paradigm called “Community Computing” that will make computing accessible without huge upfront costs. Community computes are the ones that are accessed by multiple people that don’t own the equipment.

Community computers can be typically used in environments like schools, libraries, internet and gaming cafes, community centers etc.
They represent a huge market opportunity that is particularly important in emerging markets. Estimates indicate that the computers ratio to computer users in the emerging markets is about 1:30 whereas in the developed world it is about 1:8. This tells us that there is a huge opportunity of tapping this nascent market to provide the best computing experience of the users.
There are many initiatives world wide to create cheap computing devices at price points ranging from $100-$300 per device. While this is a noble idea, I wonder about its many potential short comings like the feasibility of mass production of such a device, the knowledge barrier to its adoption, distribution and maintenance channels etc.

Rural Resource Centers

Governments and other NGOs in some countries have been experimenting with the idea of consolidating all the technology assets into one simple center of dissemination. Such centers have the following common characteristics:

RRCs are Community centers for social and commercial get-togethers that promote the concept of shared computing resources
One lead villager who is well versed in the technology and applications that are being serviced in the resource center. This “volunteer” is typically paid for by the kiosk operator like an NGO or a government agency.
RRCs should contain “kisosks” that are dedicated to a specific cause like agricultural computing, e-Government etc.
RRCs promote the use of a “Shared Computing” model ( described below )
Shared computing model
For example, in a hospital environment, doctors, nurses and other medical practitioners might use computers in a “community” environment to access different kinds of data. The radiologist might be accessing a CT scan image of a patient while a physician might be pulling up the medical records of the same patient. Security, user context switching, data navigation, privacy of data etc are key aspects of Community computing models.
In an enterprise environment, they could be used in industries like manufacturing ( shop floors ), healthcare ( hospitals ), retail kiosks etc.

Dedicated Kiosks
Specialty kiosks like the ones that can help farmers with agricultural information, ones that helps fishermen with local fishing information etc are far more useful than general purpose PCs that hold very little intrinsic value themselves in rural settings. Dedicated kiosks could be locked down versions of personal computing devices but by limiting their functionality to one specific domain, we are greatly simplifying the use and maintenance of the device, reducing the price point and promoting faster deployment and acceptability of computing as a life style “companion” rather than a complicated scientific device which is the current perception. Later on this chapter, we will examine a few excellent examples of rural applications in the areas of agriculture , trading, e-Government etc that can all be considered as good examples.

Community involvement
Creation of Rural Resource centers and establishing shared computing resources are predicated on getting very strong local support for the initiatives. Healthnet in Uganda, Cybersheperd in Senegal, EChoupal in India are all initiatives that were carried out with great local volunteer support by governments and multinational companies. Phase 1 : Government and NGO Infrastructure

Many of the issues we considered in Chapter XXX regarding the role of a government in promoting the use of information technology apply here in this context as well. Things like telecom infrastructure, socio economic incentives of doing business with the poor, accessibility to the poorest are all gauging factors that contribute to the effectiveness of a rural computing network. Agencies other than the government also play a key role in ensuring the right climate for reaching the poor in an effective manner.
An open and pro-active government. This is critical. Governments in developing countries could greatly benefit from having a "champion" of public information, who will support consumers' and citizens' rights to information. Governments in emerging countries have a far more significant role to play than its counterparts in the developed world. Here are some of the major roles the government plays in influencing the adoption of Information Technology among the poor populace:
Fiscal policies: Federal policies around elements of IT like import duties for hardware, restrictions on foreign direct investment in this sector etc are all important levers in fostering a very healthy domestic IT sector.
IT enabling Government Functions: Governments may also consider adopting electronic tools to support processes such as providing education, health services information and streamlining public procurement
MicroCredit channels: In the developing world, nobody has the reach and influence that the governments have in almost every part of the world. Using this reach to enable a viable micro-credit channel for the rural poor will go a long way in ensuring a faster adoption of technology.
IT policies: Appropriate and forward-looking IT and telecommunication public policies, legislation and an understanding of their overall impact on a country's welfare is a key requirement from a country’s governance. Without appropriate policies players in the global information economy have no protection and the scale of their operations remains limited. High Internet tariffs, for instance, have historically being considered the most important obstacle to the development of a vibrant IT sector. Another example is e-commerce which, in the developing country context, cannot exist without a very specific set of public policies, an effective and e-enabled banking system and compliance with international practices. A strong and an independent regulator is needed to ensure that regulatory policy is enforced fairly and in a timely manner. Timing is everything as the underlying technologies and trends are in constant flux.
Infrastructure: All of the above points could contribute to a conducive infrastructure for IT adoption but physical infrastructure is another important element. Communication Infrastructure is in the critical path of making any meaningful progress in the IT segment and more the governments let private sector to get involved, the faster are the chances of reaching critical mass. Without infrastructure, IT can do very little and rarely at the local level. But with an investment in infrastructure, simple applications can have big impacts at all levels. Infrastructure costs decrease while effectiveness is enhanced when developing countries learn from what has being done elsewhere, and adopt the most current approaches to using IT, thus 'leapfrogging' less effective, even counterproductive, technologies.

Case Study: Costa Rica
Of the many countries that realize the importance of Information technology to elevate the living standards of the general population, Costa Rica is one of the few that has been able to articulate and work towards a sound vision over the last decade. The government of Costa Rica has enabled the emergence of such a sector. The jury is still out on whether this has led to poverty reduction but in the overall scheme of things, it is a great case study on this subject.
From the middle of the last decade, the Costa Rican government has aggressively pursued pro-active policies to develop an Information technology sector focused on the export market. These have included business incentives such as Free Trade Zones and duty free and low-duty exports and a heavy investment in a modern infrastructure and telecommunications network Also, since the 1970s, the Costa Rican government has invested heavily in general education, literacy and technical skills development. The intention was to drive economic growth.

The combination of government initiatives, stability, an educated workforce and appropriate infrastructure provided enabling conditions to attract investment. It is now estimated that more than 10% of GDP is attributable to technology exports. Costa Rica has also become a fairly attractive FDI destination with about $700 Mil USD in FDI projects. This is one of the highest in the region and can be directly attributed to the stability and foresight that the government has placed on the importance of the IT sector. An increasing percentage of exports are in software development and IT services as well as hardware and components. Today, Costa Rica has a very modern telecommunications infrastructure and is one of Latin America’s most densely networked countries (1 in 5 people have a telephone line). It also has one of the most educated and IT literate workforces outside Western countries. However, it is questionable whether this has truly affected the bottom slice of the social pyramid and whether the information technology sector has had any impact in the day to day lives of the poor. The GINI Index of Costa Rica is still at a high level of 46 indicating that there is still plenty of uneven distribution of income. There have been few significant linkages between this export sector and the rest of the economy and the ICE is lagging behind on the provision of remote telecommunication services. Although, the growth of the ICT export sector has contributed to national economic growth, the most direct impact on poverty reduction has been via the strong focus on education and skills development rather than through IT use per se.
Overall Costa Rica shows a remarkable picture of how a small poor country can make rapid strides by demonstrating a vision for the information technology sector and actively pursuing it. It also further validates the premises around other socio economic advancements that are necessary to uplift the masses and bridge the gap between the rich and the poor.

RURAL Computing

This section focuses on what information technologies can do to help in alleviating poverty. Despite huge inflow of donor money into alleviating poverty, the infrastructure of disbursement and ensuring an optimal distribution channel is a major challenge that is yet to be solved. The many stake holders in this context include governments, donors, private parties with vested interest, the poor and their diverse interests make it a complex ecosystem. Figuring out how software can help streamline some of these processes is a work in progress and in this section we will look into some of the successful case studies.

For corporations, the dual nature of the objectives in this exercise namely the philanthropic cause and establishing a self funded profitable business from addressing the needs of the poor also contributes to a lack of a longer term strategy. As more and more companies are establishing fledging business that are thriving by establishing a profitable business model by focusing on the “Bottom of the Pyramid” companies are looking at this underserved market as a longer term growth opportunity. In this section, we will look at some of the popular genres of rural computing applications that resonate with the rural populace.

· Agriculture Services: It is no secret that the rural economy in any part of the world is primarily driven by agriculture based occupations. There are several examples of how Information technology has transformed crops, fishing, cattle herding herding etc. Here are some examples of technology in use in this setting :
o GPS based services for Fishing: GPS kiosks connected to the internet use satellite data and overlays it on local geographic information to provide predictive forecasting of fishing data. Fishermen use this information to know what regions of the sea would be best for fishing. This saves them precious time, keeps them safe and maximizes their yield per trip to the sea.
o Commodities market information: In a country where 200 million people are engaged in farming or related activities, ITC ( a $2 Bil conglomerate ) is developing its internationally competitive agricultural business by empowering, not eliminating, the independent small farmer. The company is setting up of a network of Internet-connected kiosks, known as e-Choupals, through which farmers can receive all the information, products and services they need to enhance their farming productivity and receive a fair price for their harvest. Through the choupal, ITC sources the farmer's produce directly, reducing its procurement and transaction costs. Currently ITC has set up 4300 e-Choupals covering six states and 25,000 villages. By 2010, the e-Choupal network plans to cover over 100,000 villages, representing one sixth of rural India, and create more than 10 million e-farmers.
o Rural healthcare systems: Healthcare for the rural poor is one of the most important functions for a developing economy. An excellent example in which technology has pronounced impact is the HealthNet initiative in Uganda. HealthNet is pioneering the use of Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) in the African healthcare sector to provide practitioners with real-time access to vital information. The technology also allows for easier consultation, real-time ordering of medicines, and access to medical journals - all of which improves the quality of Uganda's health care system. HealthNet Uganda's leadership and strategic planning have allowed it to successfully transition from a grant-funded project to a stand-alone non-profit organization, in part due to its ability to secure support from the Ugandan government. By introducing cutting-edge technology within an innovative business model, HealthNet Uganda is successfully working to improve the health of millions of citizens.
o Farmers Call Center: This experimental service pioneered in India is called t he Kisan ( stands for farmer ) Call Center( KCC ). The KCC offers three levels of interaction and support in agriculture, fisheries and animal husbandry domains, through national experts and corresponding directorates at the Central level. Questions coming through to the call center varies from “What is the seed treatment of groundnut, with dosage?” to “What is the method of controlling yellowing in a paddy nursery?” . These questions were answered by KCC agricultural and fisheries specialists. This is the working system for providing domain services in agriculture, fisheries and animal husbandry. Typical knowledge requirements in agriculture extend to soil, seed, water management, post-harvest management, productivity increase, crop insurance, banking and financial systems, education, healthcare, and employment or entrepreneurial opportunities.
· E-Government: As we have seen in the earlier section, governments in developing countries play a vital role in promoting Information Technology. Government functions like issuing land titles, grievances filing, birth certificates, tracking reimbursements, pension remittances etc are all prime candidates for computerization. Drishtee is an example of a 3rd party that has entered the market in India to make e-governemnt applications available in a rural friendly format to the poor.
· Education: Even primary education in rural areas of developing countries cannot be taken for granted. Elementary and computer related education make great starting points for raising the awareness of technology in far flung areas. Self paced tutorials in vernacular languages are very appealing. Entrepreneurs have also attempted to create stand alone kiosks aimed only at educational causes. Surprisingly, the primary audience currently is adults who are seeking computer skills rather than children seeking primary education.
· Communication Services: Low overhead communication technologies like cell phones and SMS messaging have revolutionized developing countries. It is well documented that the Cell phone market in Asia and Africa are exploding. These low cost devices can be a platform for delivering real time information and compelling applications. Smart Communications of Philippines has transformed the cell phone market in the Philippines by enabling electronic sales of airtime via short message service (SMS) and by reducing the unit size of such sales to as little as US$0.03. This innovation has enabled millions of low-income Filipinos to access communications services - 98% of Smart's subscribers are l ow-income, pre-paid customers. Its distribution system, using SMS technology, allows merchants to re-sell minutes, taking a commission on every sale, in essence creating a business opportunity for 450,000 entrepreneurs.

· Entertainment: Rural areas in developing countries spend a disproportionate amount of their disposable income on entertainment like movies, music etc. Rural computing that can marry information with entertainment will get a lot of traction.


Case Study 1: “Cyber Shepherd” project in Senegal, Africa

One third of Senegal’s nine million people are pastoral and are dependent on cattle farming. It relies on the ability of herders to manage grazing and water resources. This requires the seasonal movement of flocks and herds. Herders move their animals when the rains cease, in search of new pasture and watering points. In Senegal, this search takes them from the parched savannas of the north to more fertile areas in the south. The ever more fragile environment is subject to great pressures. In this context, the seasonal movement of livestock is essential to the survival of the herds, but it is also a source of problems.
The movement leads to many conflicts between migrant herders and farmers in the pasture areas, and between sedentary and migrant pastoralists. There is also the risk of introducing or spreading animal diseases in the host area. Moreover, traveling such long distances wears out the already poorly nourished herds, leading to lower milk and meat
production. Yet these migrations remain essential to the economy where livestock production accounts for 15 to 35% of gross domestic product and between 15 and 30% of export revenues. Transhumance is thus a central feature of the primary sector in Senegal and provides rural people with 55 to 75% of their income.
How can technology help rural communities to protect pastures that are threatened, in the long term, by overexploitation?
The Cyber Shepherd project aims to use new technologies to provide pastoralists with information about resources in the transhumance zones.Field surveys were conducted among more than 200 families in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Senegal to compile an inventory of traditional practices and local know-how in the use of pastoral resources, with a view to combining them with modern tools and knowledge and making them more accessible. Three zones were selected in Senegal as sites for a pilot project. In each of these trial zones, herders have been taught to read and to prepare geographic maps by working with GPS (Global Positioning System) devices that are linked to satellites and that can be used for accurate positioning on the ground. Several of these herders have also been equipped with cell phones to speed up the exchange of information and provide them with an "early warning system" against pending disasters.
Some herders have received IT training so that they can access information available on the Web. All the equipment needed for Internet connection has been installed in each pastoral unit, where real-time information on pasture issues can be accessed through a site. This is the first time in Africa that a combination of technology and local resources have been used for tracking livestock migrations. Pastoralists say that the project has lifted a number of constraints by making information available about pasturelands and watering spots. Before the project, it was very hard for herders to get information, because they had to wait for the weekly market or go off to see for themselves where they should take their animals. In practice, people involved in the project have had trouble putting the new technologies to use in these rural areas.

Case Study 2: B2Bpricenow.com in Philippines

Philippines like most other developing countries has more than 60% of its work force in the agricultural sector. This includes farming, fishing and other related occupations. There was a severe need to connect small time farmers to mainstream markets to empower them and B2BPricenow.com was the answer and this brief case study will illustrate how this website and its associated infrastructure helped the farmers.
B2Bpricenow.com is an e-marketplace in the Philippines that enables farmers, fishermen, and SMEs to access market prices and trade products. The marketplace can be accessed via web site or cell phone. The first phase of the project involved obtaining content for the B2B web site from a variety of agricultural and fishery cooperatives and training them to access and post products on the site. The second phase of the project focussed on getting target groups connected to the Internet and conducting actual transactions online.
The project objective was to “enable farmers to harness the benefits of information and communications technologies to promote economic development and social well-being.” The objective was that by providing transparent and timely market information to both buyers and sellers, the project will enhance efficiencies in the agricultural market. In addition, the ability of farmers to tap buyers and sellers directly and to obtain competitive prices for inputs and outputs should result in higher incomes - direct poverty alleviation impact. The rationale behind the project was that farmers in the Philippines, particularly those in rural areas, have long suffered from lack of market price information and poor access to buyers and sellers. Co-operatives and government agencies collected samples of prevailing market prices several times a week that were then disseminated on demand a day or two later. Often the available prices were out of date. Also, the system was unable to provide comprehensive price information throughout the 7100 islands of the Philippines. So, producers have been unable to get the best value for their produce. Furthermore, there was no mechanism to allow farmers and co-operatives to market their products and trade directly with distant buyers and sellers. B2B provides a free electronic bulletin board and marketplace designed to bring relevant market information directly to farmers, primarily through their cooperatives. As an electronic bulletin board, the web site enables users to gain greater negotiating leverage from awareness of prevailing market prices for their products. Project activities to date include establishment of the web site, creation of web site content, and a training/information road show presented in over 30 cities. The training program included computer training and online basics. Currently, project activities are focused on getting cooperatives connected to the Internet in 1,500 municipalities through the establishment of business centers on cooperative premises. A major technical challenge has been poor quality or non-existent telephone connections. This has limited access to municipal centers. For areas far from any telephone service, B2B is looking to use satellite and wireless technology companies. While B2B has focused on the Internet, it has become obvious that mobile phones offer a greater opportunity for relevant and useable service. They are common in the Philippines and text messaging is popular. B2B offers part of its service through SMS and will expand this aspect in response to demand. In August 2003, B2Bpricenow.com had nearly 2000 businesses connected to its website.

The project contributes to pro-poor growth as:
• Farmers may increase their revenues by getting competitive prices for their produce
• Farmers may lower costs by communicating electronically with other cooperatives that have similar purchasing and marketing requirements
• Price and supply volume information aids farmers to make better crop and other investment choices, and
• The site enables farmers to broaden their customer base and to trade with one another

Case study 3: HealthNet in Uganda
Technology continues to be vital to the development of many African nations. The digital divide between industrial nations and the developing world represents an opportunity for many micro-enterprises to build sustainable models for profitability and growth. HealthNet Uganda (HNU), a project funded by SATELLIFE, a U.S.-based non-profit organization, was created in an effort to demonstrate the effectiveness of using personal digital assistants (PDAs) in healthcare in Africa. HealthNet Uganda is transitioning from a grant-funded project to a self-sustaining non-profit organization. The project conducted market and profitability analyses and identified potential clients. In addition, the underlying assumptions that define HNU’s business model—including the willingness and ability of consumers to spend a premium on HNU services, the effectiveness of the technology, and ongoing support of critical partners and constituents—were scrutinized and evaluated. The use of information and communications technology (ICT) has had a significant impact on healthcare worldwide and Uganda will be no exception. In fact, the analysis shows that Uganda, and potentially other developing nations, have an urgent need for ICT in the delivery of healthcare. HealthNet Uganda’s services will be used by medical professionals, students, NGOs, and other individuals and institutions involved in the Ugandan health sector. All of HNU’s targeted users see the value in having readily available real-time access to information. The availability of information ensures accurate reporting and analysis of health data and provides doctors with the ultimate tool to care for patients. Health workers in remote parts of the country will now be able to consult with peers, access information from medical journals and order drugs and medical supplies in real time. This ability to share information could have far-reaching benefits for the health sector in Uganda. The Ministry of Health in Uganda has enacted policies which demonstrate its commitment to the use of ICT in healthcare. Currently the Ministry uses technology in its Health Management Information System (HMIS) for telemedicine. However, there remains lingering concerns about the necessity, applicability, and affordability of PDAs. Policy implications of PDA adoption will have to be considered as a necessary part of HNU’s model. As HealthNet Uganda transitions to a self-sustaining organization, the most obvious challenge is the scarcity of financial and human resources. With the support of stakeholders and partners, thorough strategic planning and analysis, and dedicated leadership, it is likely that HealthNet Uganda will not only succeed in its stated objectives, but will lead the way for further innovation in the delivery of services in the health sector in Uganda through the use of ICT.

Food for thought

We have collectively not even scratched the surface of what’s possible with information technology to aid the poor and downtrodden. As it has been evident from this chapter, technology is only a part of the solution and a simultaneous push from the governments, NGOs , the rural populace and other parties with vested interests is essential to make this dream a reality. This dream cannot be fulfilled without a comprehensive well thought out plan as we discussed in the earlier portion of this chapter.

The global economy is increasingly a market economy and our systems must operate under market constraints. That means, for example, that infrastructure is expanding where it is most convenient - usually where it is profitable and there is a large enough market for private-sector investment. Conversely, it is not infiltrating areas below the minimum revenue threshold, sparsely populated regions for example. In other words, scale is also of utmost importance. Even the Grameen Bank can operate its cell-phone project in Bangladesh partly because the population density in that country makes it feasible. One way that developing countries can address that market constraint is to be more strategic about infrastructure investments. Instead of investing in land-based telecom infrastructure that is used only part of the time and often not for any productive effort (in economic terms), a country could invest in satellite links to beam down Internet connectivity to rural areas. That connectivity may prove more productive because it would be a catalyst to a number of other activities as we have seen in the local level examples. Over the Internet, voice communication would also be possible, and scale may be achieved over a multitude of communities in large rural areas, thus decreasing costs even below the levels of the originally intended land-based systems.
One strategy for initiating that change to more productive investments would be to identify leverage points, to do a cost-benefit analysis of making any IT infrastructure investment. For example, three areas of a country need information. One area produces silk, another okra and the third fish. Because the global market for silk is far larger than for the other products, it would make more sense to initially concentrate the IT infrastructure to serve the silk-producing areas. That analysis is often missing and may represent another role for development organisations to play.
It might not be an exaggeration to argue that in a global economy, IT is a material necessity. Many people say 'Isn't it more important in rural areas to have electricity than it is to have IT access'? Common wisdom might say yes, but if an investment in IT can spark greater growth in the long term, wouldn't that justify the initial costs for IT? If the silk-producing community can use IT to generate economic activity that is greater than what would be produced if the community invested in electricity to power a factory, should they not make the IT investment?
An investment in IT can also be measured in different terms, as a social good. Perhaps having the technology to contact a hospital and describe the symptoms of a very sick person and receive a written procedure back, would be more important to the community than electricity to light village homes at night. Of course the decision is to be taken by the local community, but in the information age, for the first time, the question of what comes first among electricity, telephone, and information does not have to be a foregone conclusion.

Sources
World Bank Poverty redcution initiative
www.worldbank.org/poverty/strategies
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
http://www.unctad.org
http://www.digitaldividend.org/

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

The New Silk Route - Software for Emerging Economies


Introduction
With a unique blend of software, history and macro economics, the “New Silk Route” brings out the opportunity for the software industry to target the emerging economies like India, China, Russia, South Africa, Brazil etc. The book ponders on the changing world order and examines the critical business factors that are essential to successfully tapping the nascent software markets in these economies. Using a self developed “Emerging Markets Framework” for software products targeting emerging economies, the book looks at specific examples both in the consumer as well as in the enterprise market. Drawing on macros economic trends, the book delves into applying the principles of the above mentioned framework in the retail segment in India fuelled by a burgeoning middle class, the ERP and Supply Chain software market in chain driven by a strong manufacturing growth and an emerging healthcare software opportunity in South Africa. Interlacing contemporary trends and economics with history of the silk route, the book is a very easy read for the casual non technical reader and insightful to the serious professionals developing product strategies for emerging markets.

Salient points of the book

Understand why the emerging markets are important for software companies and examine the limitless opportunities of this 4Bil+ market
Learn about the changing world order and the underlying shifts that are contributing to this phenomenon and how it will shape the future of software
Develop a framework to analyze, design and develop software targeted at the Emerging economies
Examine specific Enterprise and Consumer scenarios in these markets and use the framework to develop software strategies

Target Audience

  • Decision makers in Software companies that want to take their product global and cater to the 4 Bil+ market in the emerging markets
  • Academia interested in global trade, software and new market development
  • Students of global product management
  • Students of the business of software
  • Casual readers of contemporary software and trade trends
Table of Contents

    • Global Economic Outlook
    • Challenges in the Emerging markets
    • Business Model Challenges

  • Chapter 3 : The Software business model
    • Business model challenges in Emerging markets
    • A new framework for software design
      • Product Research
      • Product Design
      • Sales and marketing models
    • Formulating Emerging markets strategy
  • Chapter 4 : The Enterprise market

    • Introduction to the challenges
    • Industry: ERP - Country focus: China
    • Industry: CRM - Country focus: India
    • Industry: Healthcare - Country focus: South Africa
    • Industry: Retail - Country focus: India
    • Conclusion, major trends and strategies

  • Chapter 5 : The Consumer market

    • Introduction
    • Macroeconomics in Emerging Economies
    • Adoption characteristics
    • Market segments
      • Desktop applications
      • Entertainment software
      • Digital media
      • Education software
      • Mobility software
    • Technology case study: Mobility in APAC
    • Learnings in the business model

  • Chapter 6 : Rural Computing

  • Chapter 7 : Conclusion


Chapter 5: The Consumer Market





Chapter 5: The Consumer Market

Introduction

When transcending national borders, products have to go through a top down cleansing. Marketers and product developers in almost any industry face a multitude of challenges in getting their respective products ready for global markets. Consumer software is more difficult to localize, to launch and to strike a chord with the local people than enterprise software. It is not unlike in other industries where the products that are more intrinsically linked to the lifestyle like food, drinks, cars etc are inherently more difficult to customize than say, engine oils , razor blades or jeans.

The first reason for this is related to the fit of the product in the target consumer’s life style. An excellent example is breakfast cereal that is popular in most western economies but has little resonance with eastern consumers as it is quite a departure from their traditional diet. Another example is instant coffee which is quite popular in Britain an Ireland but is not so in Germany and France where the consumers prefer freshly brewed coffee over the instant variety.
The second reason for this phenomenon is directly related to newness of the product. Newer classes of products like computers, mobile phones etc have a better chance of faster global acceptance than food products that are well entrenched in the culture.

I would argue that software especially the ones that are intended for the consumers fall into the first category. Software like the ones that keep personal appointments, communication – email, instant messages, SMS etc, authoring, gaming etc are all tied intrinsically to the lifestyle of people and could be tied back to the socio economic attributes that influence a certain set of people.
“Socio”, because cultural and generational influences have distinct impact on the usage of consumer software. For example,

“Economic” because affordability and credit factors have distinct impact on adoption of new software and associated products.

Some macroeconomics

Before going any further into specific genre of consumer software products or exploring a few strategies in the emerging market consumer space, let’s get a few basic macro economic definitions out of the way. Though this book is not a treatise on macros economics, it is important to appreciate a few key points in order to formulate strategies for this segment.

Gini Index:
While formulating business models and pricing strategies in the consumer market, it is important to understand the factors that influence buying behavior. GINI index or GINI coefficient is perhaps the least celebrated of the macro economic indexes but is a great indicator of the consumer buying patterns. It is usually used to measure income inequality, but can be used to measure any form of uneven distribution. The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds with perfect equality (where everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds with perfect inequality (where one person has all the income, and everyone else has zero income). The Gini index is the Gini coefficient expressed in percentage form, and is equal to the Gini coefficient multiplied by 100. The Gini coefficient's main advantage is that it is a measure of inequality, not a measure of average income or some other variable which is unrepresentative of most of the population, such as gross domestic product.
GDP statistics are often criticized as they do not represent changes for the whole population, the Gini coefficient demonstrates how income has changed for poor and rich. If the Gini coefficient is rising as well as GDP, poverty may not be improving for the vast majority of the population. The Gini coefficient can be used to indicate how the distribution of income has changed within a country over a period of time, thus it is possible to see if inequality is increasing or decreasing.

This measure is key for several reasons. When we talk about consumer products including consumer software, we are essentially talking about volume. To size the market accurately and prepare product and services offerings for the appropriate micro segments, a GINI Index based segmentation is essential. Some countries have such varying degrees of inequalities that it is impossible to create a mass market product since it implies a staggered income distribution.
Here are some examples of countries along with their GINI indices


Source: United Nations – Human Development Report 2004, CIA World Fact book 2004

Analysis



  1. Japan with a low Gini index and a very high per capita GDP indicates a very rich country that has a fairly uniform distribution of wealth. This combination speaks volumes about the affordability of the general population. This is very well backed up by real consumer data that shows strong propensity for personal electronics spending on goods like camera, mobile phones, gaming stations, music and entertainment gadgets etc.

  2. India with a relatively low Gini Index along with a low national GDP indicates that even though the country is poor, the spread is relatively very narrow making it a very attractive consumer market. This is of course contingent on the right strategy with regards to pricing , perceived value of the service, etc.

  3. China on the other hand tells a different story with its high GINI index for its low per capital income indicates a dispersion in the market making it a little more complicated than Indian when it comes to formulating segmentation and pricing strategies.

  4. Brazil and South Africa indicate rare high levels of GINI indices implying an uneven distribution of wealth in these countries. This is also a fairly common trend in many other South American and African counties as well.



PPP

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is a method used to calculate an alternative exchange rate between the currencies of two countries. The PPP measures how much a currency can buy in terms of an international measure (usually dollars), since goods and services have different prices in some countries than in others.
PPP exchange rates are used in international comparisons of standard of living . A country's GDP is originally tallied in its local currency, so any comparison between two countries requires converting currency. Comparisons using real exchange rates are considered unrealistic, since they do not reflect price differences between the countries. The differences between PPP and real exchange rates can be significant. For example, GDP per capita in Mexico is ca. 6,100 U.S. Dollars , while on a PPP basis, it is 9,000$ (U.S. GDP/capita is 37,388$, as of 2004 ).

First suppose that one U.S. Dollar (USD) is currently selling for ten Mexican Pesos (MXN) on the exchange rate market. In the United States wooden baseball bats sell for $40 while in Mexico they sell for 150 pesos. Since 1 USD = 10 MXN, then the bat costs $40 USD if we buy it in the U.S. but only 15 USD if we buy it in Mexico. Clearly there’s an advantage to buying the bat in Mexico, so consumers are much better off going to Mexico to buy their bats. If consumers decide to do this, we should expect to see three things happen:


  1. American consumers desire Mexico Pesos in order to buy baseball bats in Mexico. So they go to an exchange rate office and sell their American Dollars and buy Mexican Pesos.
  2. The demand for baseball bats sold in the United States decreases, so the price American retailers charge goes down.

  3. The demand for baseball bats sold in Mexico increases, so the price Mexican retailers charge goes up.
Eventually these three factors should cause the exchange rates and the prices in the two countries to change such that we have purchasing power parity. If the U.S. Dollar declines in value to 1 USD = 8 MXN, the price of baseball bats in the United States goes down to $30 each and the price of baseball bats in Mexico goes up to 240 pesos each, we will have purchasing power parity. This is because a consumer can spend $30 in the United States for a baseball bat, or he can take his $30, exchange it for 240 pesos (since 1 USD = 8 MXN) and buy a baseball bat in Mexico and be no better off.
Purchasing-power parity theory tells us that price differentials between countries are not sustainable in the long run as market forces will equalize prices between countries and change exchange rates in doing so.

Other macro economic measures that influence

Disposable income

Urban Vs Rural population dispersion
Rapid urbanization of the world has been a well documented topic over the recent years and a close look at the statistics reveal enlightening views. China and India still have a predominantly rural ( 70% ) population. Brazil and Argentina on the other hand have about 80-90% of the population residing in large urban cities. This dispersion is important for consumer markets as rural consumers are traditionally harder to reach and severe infrastructural limitations hamper rapid deployment and adoption of new technologies and products.

Population age dispersion

It is essential to understand the distribution of population in the various economies as it speaks volumes about the trends in consumer spending and the types of software that are likely to be used. Lets’ take a minute to glance through the date





Source: United Nations Demographics report:2002

The above data clearly indicates several things. In a nut shell, we can summarize that China and India have younger populations than the developed economies like Germany, UK and USA. 70% of India’s population is less than 35 years old indicating a massive ( more than 700 Mil ) market of young, earning people who probably also have a higher portion of disposable income than people that are older than say 55 years.
Consumer software companies have to pay close attention to the above trends as many of the genres of consumer software like entertainment, communication etc are more appealing to the <35 years segment.


Now that we have taken a whirlwind tour of macro economics, lets turn our attention to the various markets that make up the consumer software market. It will not be a stretch to say that the consumer software market is no where as mature as the enterprise segment. Although software has touched out lives in a significant way since the internet boom in the mid 90’s it is still nearly not as influential as it has the potential to become. Software companies have also focused almost exclusively on the enterprise segment as the demand and predictability of this market is far more stable and consistent than that of the consumer segment. This combined with the fact that consumer markets vary far more across cultural and geographic boundaries make it more complex to cross market products that have been developed to cater to a specific market.

Adoption characteristics - S Curve

The tradition S Curve is a great tool for analyzing how consumers adopt new technologies. The S Curve deals with the cumulative adoption of any new product or technology by the mass population. It starts off with a steep incline that indicates rapid adoption of the new technology by a very small segment of the population followed by a steady curve where most adoption takes place. WE can characterize this part of the curve as the “mainstream adoption”. The curve flattens once we reach towards the top of the chart and the ceiling indicates the saturation line for the particular product. For ex, take online gaming for example- there is only a sub section of the population that is interested in the online gaming market and it is usually a predictable steady line that is constant along time. The rate of adoption of new products like xbox might vary due to numerous other factors but it will be considerably shorter and steeper than the original gaming curve of the 80s as the awareness of computer games has increased tremendously over the last two decades. The same argument can be extrapolated to other technologies like mobility software, DVD players etc.

In his book “Crossing the Chasm”, Geoffrey Moore talks about the chasm that exists between adoption of new technologies by the enthusiast and visionaries and the main stream population.




S Curve variations in Emerging economies

This chasm could be small and short lived and in some other cases like the emerging economies, it is deeper and longer. I draw this inference based on the analysis of income distribution we did in the last section using the GINI index. Lets try to plot the same curve for an emerging economy. In developed economies, the chasm is more a result of technological apprehensions than it is due to the economic dispersion. In emerging economies on the other hand, the chasm is an absolute product of wildly varying economic dispersions. For example, take mobile music devices like iPod or other music players. Lets say, of the 700 Mil people in India below the age of 35, 20% ( about 140 Mil) would like to listen to some kind of music during their normal day of activity. Of this 140 Million only about 5 million ( 3.5%) will be able to afford the devices. Once we have eliminated the first barrier to entry, lets see how the S Curve fits into this target segment. In most markets, the Early adopters to the left of the chasm is only about 10% of the mainstream audience putting our number at about 500, 000 likely early adopters which is not a bad number considering the product. The main challenge for any new product entering a virgin market is to cross the chasm and move to the mainstream where 905 of the target market resides.


Other observations



  1. The depth and the width of the chasm is directly proportional to the GINI index. Higher GINI numbers indicate a wider dispersion of wealth among the population and hence the longer it would take to bridge the gap between the wealthy early adopters and the mainstream adopters.

  2. The general steepness of the curve is a factor of per capita GDP and disposable income. The more the disposable income is, the steeper is the curve for non essential products like mobile audio players.




Market segments

In this section, we will look at the overall landscape of the consumer market segment and how the various concepts we explored in the first part of this chapter can be applied to the overall landscape. Consumer software markets can be generally classified into the following categories:

Personal productivity

Consumer software owes its origins to this segment with the original word processing tools like Lotus 1-2-3 and Word Perfect, etc. Remarkably, this segment has been devoid of much innovation despite advancements in graphics, internet, hardware, form factors etc. I would argue that personal productivity software is no where close to influencing our daily lives as much as it can potentially be. Here are some examples of personal productivity applications that have evolved over the years.

Desktop applications
Desktop operating systems can also be considered a part of this segment for a lack of better alternative. Other applications such as browsers, music players, photo organizers etc are all part of this genre as well. Communication and organizational tools such as Email, web conferencing tools, appointments also fall into this category.


EM considerations:
In emerging markets the above category of applications form the baseline of desktop computing. The main obstacle to mainstream adoption of personal computers has been the high barrier to entry of acquisition costs associated with the purchase. This can be mitigated to a large extent by innovating on payment models as I have touched upon several times in this book. Smart packaging by the hardware and software vendors can substantially reduce the price of acquisition. For example consider this scenario- The cost of a new branded desktop PC is about $500 in most emerging markets. In pure economic terms, it is about 10% of the per capita GDP for a country like India. Comparatively, the cost of a new PC in the untied States is only about $1000 which is about 2.5% of the per capita income. This significant variation is the most obvious barrier to entry for desktop PCs. One way of solving this is to subsidize the procurement by forming a bundle of the hardware, the operating system and compelling desktop applications like personal finance, communication and gaming software. The users could then be charged the same $500 over a period of 12 or 18 months through a reliable channel like the television cable company or the phone provider. I like to call this model “Subscribe to own” where the user will own the rights to the software and hardware when they pay off the total amount. Along with innovating on the payments side, the software should also be customized and localized for local languages and cultural aspects. We will look into this more in the subsequent sections


Entertainment software
This category has more cultural overtures than any other class of consumer applications. I don’t have the data but having lived in emerging economies, I can attest to the fact that people in emerging countries spend quite a bit of their disposable income in personal entertainment like movies, music, games etc. The software industry as a whole has really not made a lot of inroads into this segment.

EM considerations:
We have to think about ways by which software can enrich and at the same time piggy back on the enormous popularity of local movies and music.

Interactive TV
TV penetration in Emerging markets is usually at astronomical levels. This market is ripe to be taken advantage of by offering value added services to basic television. As with the mobile phone platform, value added services can be built into the delivery channel. This has huge advantages like eliminating the requirement for a separate billing solution which is a major stumbling block in emerging economies. Television is one of the most accepted appliances in this market and has already reached critical mass in terms of acceptance and penetration. Value added services like programming on demand, educational programs, provisions for buying merchandise etc can all be considered. Most of these services can also be provided without having to change the television set and can be accomplished with the installation of a set top box. With embedded software in these set top boxes, software companies can also experiment with personalization, child locks, programmability etc.


New software delivery models


Gaming
Mobility



  • Cell Phone software

Online

This is classic B2C market that led the dotcom boom of the late 90’s. This fad never really reached the Emerging Economies before bursting in 1999. Though this segment has mellowed down since its early peak days, it still holds a lot of promise. It will have to slowly overcome many challenges in the emerging markets like lack of established and trustworthy online credit payment vehicles, lack of organized supply chain etc. Let’s first look at this segment a little closely before diving into the challenges associated with this market.

Auctions
eBay is one of the few companies that survived the onslaught



  • Sharing and collaboration ( pictures, files music etc )

  • Travel

  • Other misc ecommerce


Music industry
Music - online or not, is a talent-based industry. Developed countries used to have advantages in technology, but the general progress in computing and the Internet is rapidly eliminating any difference. The low overhead associated with production and consumption of music makes it very attractive for emerging markets as a viable medium of digital entertainment.

In emerging markets, music reproduction is a critical part of the socio economic make up. In most of the cases, this reproduction has been through illegal ways. The global entertainment sector has recently been more concerned about restricting illicit use of copyrighted content, and thus may provide only marginally relevant guidance for artists and industry in developing countries.

As I explained earlier in this chapter, emerging economies spend an inordinate amount of money on music and entertainment.


Education

Emerging economies place a premium on education and this can be used a vehicle for reaching out the consumers in these markets. Education for consumers can be classified along the same lines as those in traditional markets but for the purpose of our discussion in this context, lets stick with the segment of higher education. The reason I want to narrow the discussion down is because of the fact that this is the most likely segment to spend money on software for educational purposes. Higher education is typically pursued by the middle class who will benefit from this offering.
Online higher education, which involves the dissemination of, access to, and exploitation of
higher education, including research, via the Internet, is being explored and promoted as a strategy
to provide further access to education and technology for national and international students. For example, in India students are able to obtain via the Internet a bachelor’s degree in information technology (IT) from the Indira Gandhi Open University (IGNOU). IGNOU is building on its existing structure as a distance education provider. The current online higher education market is still small (compared with traditional face-to-face education) and fragmented (with multiple providers
and self-developers providing flexibility, innovation and plurality but also some confusion). Online programs are concentrated in the most popular and marketable subject areas ( business management, technology , and education)

















































Barriers to consumer software adoption in emerging economies

Affordability
As we have seen in a couple of different places in this chapter and the book, affordability is a key recurring theme in the emerging economies for influencing adoption of any kind.

Infrastructure

Infrastructural limitations in emerging countries have severe repercussions in the adoption curve as well as the depth of adoption.

Half Life of technologies
Emerging economies don’t have the luxury to experiment on emerging technologies. Neither do they have the critical mass of early adopters to push the volume nor do they have the infrastructural set required to respond to constantly changing landscape. For example, lets look at large scale public deployment of public WiFi networks.

How have the emerging countries been solving some of the above mentioned issues and how can software companies act as catalysts to influence and accelerate this ? This will be the main theme of this section.



Technology case study : mobility space in Asia

Summary:
The Asian mobile data market was more than $25 billion with a revenue growth rate of close to 30%. There is a pronounced shift from voice to data traffic in this market which in turn allows for a multitude of new rich services delivered by software to enrich the user experience. Increasing demand has arisen for more data based applications in both the business and consumer sectors.
Systematic and almost complete deregulation of the Asian telecommunication industry speeded up these significant changes earlier in the decade. Consumers have opened up to the notion of having most of their communication happen through tiny mobile phones and this is fast challenging the value and acceptability of bulky desktops and PC based devices.
The fascination around mobile data services is not isolated to Asia but it would be safe to say that it has caught its imagination more than in any other part of the world. Some estimates indicate that around 25% of disposable income for the youth is spent on mobile products in these markets, displacing spending on traditional youth products like clothing, books, sporting equipment etc.
The youth plays the most important role in shaping up this market. Key software scenarios include messaging, ring-tones, wallpapers, logos, games, music and videos, and others.
Messaging services and other variations of SMS continue to remain the most popular service in the youth market. It is as much a lifestyle issue as much as it is a technology. Revenue generated from SMS has a growth rate of more than 30% with value added services like weather, sports scores, news etc make up this hot growth market.

Other segments of growth

Mobile Gaming
Mobile gaming is fast emerging as the favorite application for young mobile users across the world, spearheaded by Japan and South Korea where content has grown in terms of technology sophistication. Service providers are turning to mobile games to drive the demand for 3G services alongside the growing need for high-speed data transmission. The mobile games market in the Asia Pacific region is estimated at $1.4 billion in 2004. This industry is set to more than triple its size by 2010. The deployment of 3 G network infrastructure in some of these geographies will be a major boost to get the aggressive adoption rates even higher. This segment holds great promise and the deployment of next-generation technologies herald the new beginnings of rich mobile content development such as video clip download and streaming, music broadcasting and music album in the tier 1 markets.
This is a great opportunity for software companies to leverage their experience in the development of software and animation into the mobile world. Mobile games have evolved from basic monochrome single player games to full fidelity multiplayer, GPS-based games.
Payment models
Pay for bandwidth Paying for usage is probably the most time tested of all models. Per-kilobyte charge model is a volume–based model charged by the operators. NTT DoCoMo’s i-mode mobile Internet services have been offered primarily using this payment model. Mobile content like music and video are available from tailored i-mode handsets. The option of per kilobyte is commonly available with different rates varied across the countries.
Pay for usage
Usage based payment models normally works on commoditized content like ring-tones, pictures, music, etc; where no monthly fee is required and users are only charged for the number of downloads per content type. Software companies should look at this model more closely as it embodies the micro credit model that is absolutely required for reaching out to the masses.
Unlimited
True to its name, the unlimited model indicates a flat monthly charge billed to the subscriber with unlimited usage. Though it is one of the most complete models, it is typically associated with higher costs.